2011 Rugby World Cup

Jonah Lomu terrorising England in 1995

I think it's apt that my first proper blog entry is about the Rugby World Cup, since the 1995 version is the earliest memory I have of a major sporting event. I remember that my 7 year old self was in awe of Jonah Lomu and his New Zealand team and used to pretend to be him while playing rugby in school. I've remembered the scoreline of New Zealand 145-17 Japan ever since.

The 2011 edition of the World Cup sees a New Zealand team at least as talented as the one that reached the final in South Africa in '95. They are hoping to go one better on October 23rd, especially as New Zealand have (however unfairly) developed a reputation for choking every four years since their only win in 1987. They may have failed to win the 2011 Tri-Nations but they have proved since 2007 that they remain the team to beat and are comfortably top of the IRB rankings. As in previous tournaments it is hard to see any team challenge the hosts apart from Australia, South Africa and potentially England and France. It goes without saying that Australia are a major threat to New Zealand, especially after beating them in the Tri-Nations decider just weeks ago. If you want to know how to beat the Kiwis, the Aussies will take pleasure in telling you, and if the two rivals meet in the final, the fact that Australia are coached by former All Black Robbie Deans would add an extra edge. The same can't quite be said for defending champions South Africa. Some poor performances in the Tri-Nations and an ageing squad suggest that they'll struggle to reach a second final in a row. After the opening round of games, it certainly seems Australia are in a better position after their performance against Italy whereas South Africa were extremely lucky to see off Wales.

France are New Zealand's bogey team and it will be fascinating to see how France fare in their group encounter next week. The French are though, like their footballing counterparts were last year, let down by an eccentric coach and as in the Fifa World Cup, the French go into this tournament knowing that their coach will be leaving at the end of it. We all know what happened in South Africa last year, but even Marc Lievrement can't be quite so bad as Raymond Domenech was. As for England, they always seem to find a way. When they lost 36-0 to South Africa in 2007 nobody thought they'd meet them again in the final, and a lucky draw means they're in a position to win their group quite comfortably. A poor performance against Argentina had the press all over England but some media seemed to forget they actually won that game. France and Australia, possibly standing in the way of England and a 3rd consecutive final, have recent bad memories of World Cup encounters with the English and probably wouldn't relish another meeting.

While the latter stages of the competition will no doubt be intriguing, it is the group stage that I like the most, especially because the performance of tier 2 nations is tangibly improving. Detractors of the Rugby World Cup claim that it's the most predictable tournament around. While this is a valid claim, the days of 142-0 victories (Australia v Namibia, 2003) appear to be over. A look back at the 2003 group stage sees an awful lot of one sided victories, with England scoring more than 80 points on two occasions. Argentina's incredible 3rd placed finish in 2007 represents the improvement of world rugby's developing nations. While it is likely that we will see a 70 or 80 point score at some point (Australia v Russia perhaps?) the lesser teams are playing above themselves. In 1999 Ireland beat USA 53-8. On Sunday the score was 22-10. Tonga achieved their best result against New Zealand, Japan came far closer to beating France than the 49-21 scoreline suggested, Romania gave Scotland the fright of their lives after leading with 12 minutes left. What's more, Argentina, having played less than half the amount of matches as the leading nations since the last World Cup, came close to an upset against England while Canada surprised Tonga with a fantastic display. Even debutants Russia got a bonus point against the USA and could have won it at the end.

However, what Romania, Japan, Georgia and Argentina have in common is that they all lost the game in the last ten, twenty or thirty minutes. Weaker teams in rugby find it harder to cause an upset than weaker teams in football, and this is partly because fitness is so important. The intensity and stamina of stronger teams wear down the weaker ones whose players don't play top class rugby every week. Because of this, the feeling of sad inevitability was prevalent when France ran in three late tries to beat Japan. Unfortunately the Cup organisers are impeding the weaker nations even more through the scheduling of the games. The top seeds in each group play every weekend, while Georgia who endured a hugely physical game against Scotland on Tuesday, have four days to prepare for a fresh England team, tired only from bungee jumping and throwing dwarfs (http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2011/sep/15/dwarf-throwing-england-rugby). Similarly Canada, off the back of their wonderful win over Tonga have to get physically prepared for France on Sunday, who like England have had a week off. If the IRB wants real competition for 2nd place in the group, they have to give teams like Canada the respect they deserve. If the Canadians could have a week off like France that game could be a great one.

So I won't be surprised if the French and the English score a few late tries this weekend against what have become the real stars of the tournament. Teams including players who have taken unpaid leave from their jobs to take part, who realise what they're up against, but nevertheless front up, match the aggression of the big teams and play for their team-mates and their flag. The teams therefore, who encapsulate the spirit of the World Cup.